Posts filed under Equities

Top Level Movements at Infosys - No Major Impact

In the last few months Infosys has lost a number of senior people. The last among them has been Bala, the erstwhile CFO & current Head BPO, Finacle, India & Chairman Lodestone.

The other significant recent ones are Basab Pradhan , Head Global Sales, Sudhir Chaturvedi, Head US BSFI, H Andrade Latam BPO, Karthik Jayaraman, BPO Australia, Stephen Pratt Head Utilities , Resources North America, S Goparaju, Head Infosys Labs & Ashok Vemuri , Head North America & Manufacturing.

Though this is an excellent top management talent pool of people to let go but at times pruning is essential. When the organization achieves a certain scale , the old leaves & dead cells need to give way for talent below to unleash in its own right. They need to move away as they may have been the best in their times but having done the job lingering too long could easily impede the career , growth and aspirations of people below.

If likes of Ganguly, Dravid, Laxman & Kumble had not retired , likes of Harbhajan Gambhir, Shewag not dropped and even Sachin Tendulkar not finally given a farewell, how would we have seen and admired the likes of swash buckling Shikhar Dhawan, fluent Pujara, mercurial Virat Kohli, and stable Rahane .

With the rich experience, slowing reflexes & remaining talent oldies would have still managed a decent show but not a great one and what would happen when its time to go a large vacuum looms.

Bala in addition to being an extremely competent CFO and a blue eyed boy of Murthy was even touted to be in line for the CEO position. In my opinion it would have been a mistake if he were to become a CEO. He is a conservative accountant with a keen eye on numbers which may be good for the margins but not for business at times. Though he may have faced customers but needed to be more fluent in the true sense of a salesman.

With the exception of Ashok Vemuri, all others may have a moderate to insignificant short term revenue impact but will prove good for the organization in long term. Ashok had a decent opening at hand and chose to encash that rather than wait for Infosys succession opportunity, which may , may not come his way in future.

Infosys is a very large organization which prides itself for its large talent pool, structured succession planning (2 identified replacements for every single role) , growth opportunities to further aspirations, these exits are normal.

In my opinion Murthy’s return and his chairman’s office think tank was a timely invigorating event which will lead to the revival of Infosys , a true Infy Version 2.

Posted on December 22, 2013 and filed under Equities, Leadership.

Fortis Sells Quality Healthcare To Bupa

In a move to trim its debt and strengthen its balance sheet, Fortis is raising $355 Mn by selling 100% stake in Altai Investments Limited, the holding company of Quality Healthcare, Honk-Kong, to British medical services group, Bupa.
 
Its a good move as the company was purchased in Oct '10 for USD 193 Mio, netting a profit of $162 Mio.

Posted on October 15, 2013 and filed under Equities.

Lessons in Leadership - The Infosys turnaround

Infosys was the bellwether not just of IT industry but the whole stock market.

First one with results, It would set the pace every quarter, always ahead of estimates, sharing extensively they had analysts virtually eating out of their hands. 
 
After 47 continuous quarters of delivering results above estimates, What happened to the famed Infosys and its management depth ?

Posted on October 13, 2013 and filed under Equities, Leadership.

Women head the largest Indian banks

Woman power showing ..the top Indian banks all headed by Ladies ...

latest being the behemoth State Bank of India !!!

Congrats Arudhati Bhattacharya! CEO, State Bank Of India.

Interestingly, SBI, ICICI Bank, Bank of India, United Bank of India, Allahabad Bank, Axis Bank, HSBC Bank All Are Headed By Women!

Cheers !!!!

 

Posted on October 10, 2013 and filed under Economy & Geo Politics, Equities.

Gamblers’ Fallacy

Today morning I was reading how this fallacy affects the human mind and that it has taken with it many a great stalwarts. I drew some analogies with Stock market trading but more about that later.

On 18th August, 1913 stunned crowds around a roulette in Monte Carlo found a ball landing on the black twenty six times in a row and only on the twenty seventh it landed on the red. By that time many who kept increasing stakes looking for a long overdue red occurrence had lost millions and were already paupers. 

This notion feeds on a human perception that there is a “ balancing nature “ somewhere, that if something has been happening more frequently in the past, it will happen less frequently in the future. 

Though highly appealing to the human mind, it is false, especially for random, Independent events.

Lets take another example, if one has flipped a fair coin 21 times the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152 but if we interpret it rationally, the probability of the next head (or even tail) is simply ½, yes 1/2 only !

Not only people look for a variance, at times a gambler can even take a reverse stand. He may decide that given this consistent tendency towards heads, a head is a more likely an event. He then see’s some mystical correlation and continues betting on heads. 

Both of these notions are based on a fallacy that Universe somehow carries a memory of the past results, which tend to favour or disfavor the future outcomes. 

Please be sure that the coin or the ball, do not remember that it fell on a black all this while or it flipped head each time and you choosing a Head or a Tail, Black or a Red depends on your personal choice, whether you prefer the first option or the second.

Now lets imagine if you were forced to bet say a 20% of your net worth on the next event, what would you do – Heads or tail , Black or red ? think hard where you stand ?

Now lets stretch it a bit more - Joe and Sam are at the race track betting on horses.

Joe: "You see that horse over there? He lost his last four races. I'm going to bet on him." 

Sam: "Why? I think he will probably lose." 

Joe: "No way, 

Sam. I looked up the horse's stats and he has won half his races in the past two years. Since he has lost three of his last four races, he'll have to win this race. So I'm betting the farm on him." 

Sam: "Are you sure?" 

Joe: "Of course I'm sure. That pony is due, man...he's due!"

Now lets replace the Race track with Stock market , Horse with say share X and lo ….we get stock market trading !!

You would see people spending hours trying to demystify the trends of individual shares, markets etc. based on what they did yesterday, first hour, after lunch or the last hour, before & after Christmas holidays , how much was bought, what was the price rise and what not. They have raised it to the level of a science, but you can draw your own conclusions based on the foregoing.

When we talk about companies, we talk about their businesses, factories, managements, people, finances, product portfolios , future pipelines, and many other such things, these are all interdependent events.

Only the rigor of detailed analyses & in depth understanding can help reduce the odds and increase predictability. 

Thus long term investing is the way forward.

 

Posted on September 15, 2013 and filed under Equities.